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Author Topic: Arizona and March Madness  (Read 3204 times)

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Online PacSouthwest

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Arizona and March Madness
« on: January 11, 2020, 10:19:10 AM »
As of Jan. 10 Arizona's Quad 1 wins = 0
Currently, there are 83 teams with Quadrant 1 win(s).
Remaining Q1 Opportunities = 7 [Oregon (H), Stanford (A), Colorado (H), UW (A), ASU (A), Oregon St. (A), USC (A)]
* Teams close to cutoff/falling out: Colorado (28 Net) @ Home and USC (72) Away
Michigan St (Big 10) had/has a total of 18 Q1 opportunities.
Quadrant 2 wins and remaining opportunities: 3 and 5
For Comparison Purposes - Pac 12 teams Q1 wins:
5 - Oregon
2 - Colorado, USC
1 - Stanford, UW, Utah, OSU, ASU, UCLA
0 - Arizona, WSU, California

Offline arxpert

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2020, 10:37:16 AM »
We are making March Madness unless the NCAA bans us from it somehow which won't happen. Full statement, 100% confidence.

Offline TennesseeCat36

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2020, 12:40:38 PM »
Whatís the criteria for neutral court games to count as Quad 1 win? I know at home itís beating a team with a NET of 1-30 and road is 1-75 but is there a formula for neutral court games? Well we have another opportunity tomorrow night to get one at Oregon State but with our strong NET ranking and if they win the conference regular season then I believe we are a 3/4 seed come March. Itís time to reel off about 5 straight and like 9 of the next 10 and get a few Quad 1 wins in there too

Offline 2012Cat

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2020, 12:46:06 PM »
anyone that thinks we arenít making the tournament is out of their damn mind.

We are playing for seeding. Iíd say we are probably a 6 or 7 seed right now. Lots of games left but had we not lost to St. Johnís or Oregon we would probably be a 2 or 3 seed

Online PacSouthwest

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2020, 10:25:03 AM »
We are making March Madness unless the NCAA bans us from it somehow which won't happen. Full statement, 100% confidence.
I never said we would not make the tourney. The question is seeding. The higher the seed the better teams we are playing in the first weekend; especially the second game. I am not comfortable this team can win it's first game unless its playing a 13+ seed. The most upsets are from the 11 and 12 seeds, which is who we will play if we are a 5/6 seed. Then in the second game you play the 3 or 4 seed in the Region.

Online PacSouthwest

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2020, 10:27:35 AM »
Whatís the criteria for neutral court games to count as Quad 1 win? I know at home itís beating a team with a NET of 1-30 and road is 1-75 but is there a formula for neutral court games? Well we have another opportunity tomorrow night to get one at Oregon State but with our strong NET ranking and if they win the conference regular season then I believe we are a 3/4 seed come March. Itís time to reel off about 5 straight and like 9 of the next 10 and get a few Quad 1 wins in there too
Net 1-50

Online PacSouthwest

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2020, 10:46:42 AM »
Whatís the criteria for neutral court games to count as Quad 1 win? I know at home itís beating a team with a NET of 1-30 and road is 1-75 but is there a formula for neutral court games? Well we have another opportunity tomorrow night to get one at Oregon State but with our strong NET ranking and if they win the conference regular season then I believe we are a 3/4 seed come March. Itís time to reel off about 5 straight and like 9 of the next 10 and get a few Quad 1 wins in there too
The NET loves Arizona mostly because a good number of their sources (KP, BPI, SAG etc..) like our efficiencies, SOS, non-conference record and win margin (capped at +10). When it comes to seeding though, the 2 most important factors are Q1 wins and Q3 and 4 losses. We really need Q1 wins in a bad way and they are not many left. Especially if Colorado falls below 30 and OSU falls below 75. Colorado is now right at 30 (the cutoff between Q1 and Q2).

Online PacSouthwest

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2020, 10:36:11 PM »
Update Jan. 12
Quad. 1 = 0-4 [6 Q1 Opportunities left (2 Home, 4 Away)]
Quad. 2 = 2-1 [5 Q2 Opps left (4 Hm, 1 Aw)]
Road = 0-3
Conference Q1 wins
5-Oregon
2-Colorado, Oregon State, USC
1-Stanford, Washington, ASU, UCLA
0- Arizona, WSU, Cal

Offline arxpert

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2020, 11:26:33 PM »
Id say 10 losses would get us in the 8/9 seed area. If we only lose 2-3 more games this year i'd say most likely in the 4-5-6 area if we lack the combo conference title and/or conference tourney title.

Add a Pac12 conf title and Tourney title would be still as high as a 3 given the strength of the Pac this year and lack of the Quadrant wins you are speaking of. Either way we will have the chance to dance and play out the dream.

Online PacSouthwest

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Re: Arizona and March Madness
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2020, 04:04:51 PM »
Id say 10 losses would get us in the 8/9 seed area. If we only lose 2-3 more games this year i'd say most likely in the 4-5-6 area if we lack the combo conference title and/or conference tourney title.

Add a Pac12 conf title and Tourney title would be still as high as a 3 given the strength of the Pac this year and lack of the Quadrant wins you are speaking of. Either way we will have the chance to dance and play out the dream.
We have zero chance for a 4 seed, because we have zero chance at losing only 2-3 more games. We probably have a ceiling of 12-6 and a floor of 10-8 in conference.
Wins: Utah, USC, UCLA, at Cal, at Stanford, OSU, Oregon, at UCLA, UW, WSU
Losses: Colorado, at ASU, at UW, at WSU, at USC
We go 1-1 in the Pac 12 tourney and end the year at 22-10 with 2-3 Q1 wins.
Enter the tourney as a 7-9 seed and lose in the 1st weekend.

 


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