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Author Topic: Kenpom ranks Arizona basketball the #5 best program since 1997 👀 🐻⬇️  (Read 633 times)

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Online PBCatfan

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Lol @ everyone “arguing” with this list. It is literally based on statistical analysis of the last 22 years. It is just data, numbers, no opinion and nothing subjective about it if you understand who and what KenPom is.  Now keep in mind it takes into account every single second of every single game played in the last 22 years. NOT the result, so a year like Lauri Markkanen’s, that team had 2 all-time great offensive players but shit the bed in the tourney. Shitting the bed in the tourney or winning a championship wont be reflected in KenPom’s work unless he changed something.

Anywho, feel free to hijack this thread, which  we should all be celebrating, to bash Miller.

Ken Pom still decides which data he includes our excludes, that makes it subjective. Had he chosen to include championships or weight them differently, for example, the list would have looked different. 

There is also no hijacking happening here - I responded to a specific idea in a post, that is called discussion. And if that is 'bashing' Miller, you need to stop taking those sensitivity training classes.

Lololol do you know who KenPom is? Literally nothing subjective about it my friend.  I suggest you brush up on your stats.

The real problem here is you are a results-oriented thinker. In your estimation, a single elimination tournament is the best way to determine how good a team is/was for an entire season. One fluke bad game or a couple bs calls from the zebras and in your estimation an entire season can be defined by that last 40 minutes.

Myself and other people, such as KenPom, like to be process-oriented thinkers. IMO, It is far more important to focus on the process required to achieve your beloved results, than the results themselves. Miller even coined a phrase a few years back, “Honor the Process!” You can imagine how much I loved that.

Your Miller bashing comes thru even when you dont mean it to, like when you say a 5 year old could have coached Ayton to the same results...

Offline jumpinjohnny

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Lol @ everyone “arguing” with this list. It is literally based on statistical analysis of the last 22 years. It is just data, numbers, no opinion and nothing subjective about it if you understand who and what KenPom is.  Now keep in mind it takes into account every single second of every single game played in the last 22 years. NOT the result, so a year like Lauri Markkanen’s, that team had 2 all-time great offensive players but shit the bed in the tourney. Shitting the bed in the tourney or winning a championship wont be reflected in KenPom’s work unless he changed something.

Anywho, feel free to hijack this thread, which  we should all be celebrating, to bash Miller.

Ken Pom still decides which data he includes our excludes, that makes it subjective. Had he chosen to include championships or weight them differently, for example, the list would have looked different. 

There is also no hijacking happening here - I responded to a specific idea in a post, that is called discussion. And if that is 'bashing' Miller, you need to stop taking those sensitivity training classes.

Lololol do you know who KenPom is? Literally nothing subjective about it my friend.  I suggest you brush up on your stats.

The real problem here is you are a results-oriented thinker. In your estimation, a single elimination tournament is the best way to determine how good a team is/was for an entire season. One fluke bad game or a couple bs calls from the zebras and in your estimation an entire season can be defined by that last 40 minutes.

Myself and other people, such as KenPom, like to be process-oriented thinkers. IMO, It is far more important to focus on the process required to achieve your beloved results, than the results themselves. Miller even coined a phrase a few years back, “Honor the Process!” You can imagine how much I loved that.

Your Miller bashing comes thru even when you dont mean it to, like when you say a 5 year old could have coached Ayton to the same results...

Stop it--you're enabling Diquid.
Read em and weep

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PBCatfan,

THIS is exactly the type of conversation we should be having. A discussion of philosophies and ideas - I get that you don't like my ideas, but please know I enjoy hearing yours, even if I disagree with them. So I am responding to each of your points in hopes of further conversation - not to prove a point or win an argument. It is a discussion board.


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Lololol do you know who KenPom is? Literally nothing subjective about it my friend.  I suggest you brush up on your stats.

You missed my point. Let's say ken Pom wakes up today and says "I'm going to rank coaches in reverse alphabetical order by the first letter of their middle names and the result will be a ranking of the greatest coaches in college basketball history". The PROCESS is scientific. There is no room for opinion of whether 'C' comes before 'F'.... but the results are specious. If Ben Lindsay's middle name was Zebediah, well he is the one of the greatest coaches ever, whereas Robert Luther Olson is somewhere in the middle of the pack.

The same is true for stats. IF Pom SUBJECTIVELY decides that Championships do not matter as much as Ovetime Wins (just for example), well that is a SUBJECTIVE choice in the design of the ranking. If you rank the greatest programs ever by total wins that is different than if you rank them by wining percentage.

So to make any sort of ranking of college basketball programs there are all sorts of SUBJECTIVE choices as to what to include and what not to include and if you are assigning greater weight to one aspect than another, etc, etc...   

So given that we do not know POM's criteria (I did not see any detailed notes about methodology in the article), I think it is reasonable to note that UConn has won four championships and is ranked below 15 other programs who have won less than four. Therefore, what is that methodology and why was it used? Was it, perhaps, distorted by a journalist and used for a different purpose than Pom intended?   

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The real problem here is you are a results-oriented thinker.


Uh-oh. Now you are trying to get on my good side. 

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In your estimation, a single elimination tournament is the best way to determine how good a team is/was for an entire season.

Odd, I do not recall saying that. Nor do I think that, nor have I ever thought that.

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One fluke bad game or a couple bs calls from the zebras and in your estimation an entire season can be defined by that last 40 minutes.

You maybe missed my argument that Final Fours matter more than Championships or about the fact we were a far superior team to Duke in the 2001 champinship game. 

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Myself and other people, such as KenPom, like to be process-oriented thinkers. IMO, It is far more important to focus on the process required to achieve your beloved results, than the results themselves.

Given that Pom is a statistician and no statics occur until after the process - please clarify. Almost by definition Pom is a 'result oriented thinker'. He manipulates resultant data - to the best of my knowledge he does track any data from the process (i.e. recruiting, shots made in practice, conditioning of players...) - only the results of it (wins, losses, baskets, shooting %, steals, rebounds, turnovers....) . 

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Miller even coined a phrase a few years back, “Honor the Process!” You can imagine how much I loved that.

You know that Miller did not 'coin' that phrase, right? I have heard that all my life, from my scoutmaster in 1978 was probably the first time. Teachers, yoga instructors, other coaches...it's a well known aphorism. BTW, Rich Rodriguez did not coin "Our Kind of Guys" or "OKG's" either. 

BUT...it is relevant. Would you like to discuss Six Sigma or its grandfather, Kaizen? What happens when the PROCESS does not yield what it is supposed to? 'Honoring the process' is the FIRST step, but one must be in a constant re-evaluation of that process. At a rudimentary level, Kaizen is continual improvement (more accurately 'perfect change' or 'better change')...so where is the step in the PROCESS where you (or Miller) makes corrections and changes?

Too often the PROCESS becomes a sort of paralysis by analysis (hows that for a buzz word?) - where we adhere blindly to a process as the entire enterprise barrels over a cliff? Perhaps you recall the Double Eagle Flex and the fact that Tucson and AZ fans (myself included) were the last people on earth to understand that that PROCESS (system) had been figured out. But we were dedicated to the PROCESS long after the RESULTS proved we should not have been. See the analogy I am making? 

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Your Miller bashing comes thru even when you dont mean it to, like when you say a 5 year old could have coached Ayton to the same results...

Yes you are correct and I am trying to honor a request that I tone it down. But seriously, who would not have been successful coaching Ayton? Miller's accomplishment there was getting him to play at AZ in the first place, but, IMO, the RESULTS prove that something, somewhere in the process could be improved. And if it had been just Ayton, thats one thing, but what about the year before with Simmons and Lauri, or the year before with RHJ or the year before, ore the year before....?
 

I respect your opinion and appreciate your notes on Process and Results. It made me think and I had to recall some information I had not thought of in a long time. Thank you. Please take my comments as they were intended - to make you think about it from a different viewpoint...not necessarily agree with with it, just appreciate that there is more than one way to perceive it.

"How does this guy still have his job?! That makes no sense...the world is getting nuked around him and Sean Miller is still there..."  - Mark Titus

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Ken Pom doesn’t “choose” what to include in the sense you are describing. He looks at adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, he normalizes for SOS and has other thing he uses to quantify his list. There is no way to give bonus points for results, he just looks at how the team plays over the course of the game. Every team, every second of every game, every season.

If he were a results-oriented thinker like you, he would consider “achievements” like final fours and championships. But he doesnt. Just the data. You as a human could never watch every single second of every game played by every team over the course of 22 years. It is just not possible. But stats can do that and according to the numbers AZ is the 5th best basketball program over the last 22 years AT PLAYING BASKETBALL.

If you want to add subjective opinion to the data for color, the list is very sad to me because it means no program has under-achieved more in March than AZ over the past 22 years. We played the 5th best basketball in the country over the course of that time period  but have almost no hardware or banners to show for it.

Offline arxpert

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Nice for Arizona to get that respect  they deserve  an shows what lute built here an what Miller is continuing  an those are reasons I dont wanna lose Sean Miller I think he is a top 10 collage basketball  coach  i dont  believe we can do better your not getting  the coaches from Duke unc Kentucky or Kansas to come here  an some other coaches may not be able to recruit at the level Miller is  meaning  younger coaches that are upcoming is what is getting  at.

I disagree and leaving Miller out of it, here is why.

I think most coaches are relatively close when it comes to in game coaching talent (yes, they are all different, but not vastly so). They sort of all know the same stuff (which is why it so baffling when one does not) - but my point is that with evenly matched talent some coaches might be .550 career coaches and others might be .450 - but there would not be the huge outliers at .700 and .230 that are caused primarily by recruiting and the status of a program and culture, etc. For example: the 'UCLA' brand explains why Steve Alford coached in 3 sweet 16's in 4 years, while in 18 previous years at three different schools he had only gone to 1 sweet 16.  The 'ASU' brand explains why Bobby Hurley came in with a lifetime coaching record of .694 and now has a .444 career mark. If every team had equal talent, no way Alford ever gets his team to the sweet 16 three out of four years and Hurley's lifetime record would be closer to .500.

The brand matters way more than the coach. Some coaches are that special and they are the ones who build the brand. Heathcote at Michigan state was one of the better coaches of his era, he built MSU into a very good brand. Izzo is flat out special and took it to the next step. Any competent coach could walk into MSU now and do better than Heathcote did. Doing what Izzo has done...probably not gonna happen for the next coach at MSU, but almost anyone competent could come close and that is way better than most any other program out there - so fans are placated by a slight slip backwards, at least for a while.

Now, specific to Miller. 'Arizona' written on their jersey's is why these recruits are coming and the cycle feeds itself. A 5th grader could have coached Ayton with about the same results. Years like last year is where a coach earns their pay and has to punch above his weight and get creative.

If the timing had been different and we had hired Bobby Hurley from Buffalo with a .694 career record...he'd have a .625 record right now had he come to Arizona instead of ASU. I don't think Hurley is a super elite special coach, but no coach is as bad as their record at ASU...it's the program.

This is where I think you debunk yourself. Last season was one of Miller's best in terms of his personal effect on the team as he was under the worst possible hellfire and lost his class. Put together a group of misfits last second and had a winning season. 17-15. A few close losses that could have gone either way if we had a bit more talent or if certain players hit more open shots (yes, its a make or miss game no matter who is out there and yes, there were a ton of open jumpers missed that Miller can't shoot them from the bench as a coach).

8 wins in the pac12 good for 9th when 12 wins was #2 (asu). Very dog eat dog if you ask me. It was not a pretty year, but it proved that Miller had a lot of heart. He got A LOT out of that team considering BWill missing a lot of games.

You see this all as a failure, I see it as extreme commitment. Almost anyone else would have turtled up and hid in their mansion for the year while the incident cleared up. Miller worked hard, had a winning season, and was able to secure one of the best recruit classes of his tenure and amongst the best in the history of the program. I give credit where credit is due.

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Look, I am not being a jerk, nor am I attacking you. But this makes no sense whatsoever. 

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Ken Pom doesn’t “choose” what to include in the sense you are describing.

OK...I will trust and agree with your premise.

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He looks at adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, he normalizes for SOS and has other thing he uses to quantify his list.


You just said he does not do that. He chooses 'offensive and defensive efficiency', well what if he had chosen to use PER numbers? So Ken Pom made a SUBJECTIVE choice to use offensive and defensive efficiency. He believes that to be the most accurate methodology or the one people are most interested in or his wife provides sexual favors for it because it is her favorite too, but whatever the reason, he made a SUBJECTIVE choice to use O and D efficiency instead of a different (or additional) metric. 

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There is no way to give bonus points for results,


But he 'normalizes for SOS' - is that not a defacto way to give bonus points for results? I.e., you play better against better opponents you do get 'bonus points', according to your previous statement about normalizing for SOS.

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But stats can do that and according to the numbers AZ is the 5th best basketball program over the last 22 years AT PLAYING BASKETBALL.


According to the metric CHOOSEN by Ken Pom to use. Other numbers, derived from the exact same RESULTANT stats, might show something different, if different methodology was used, like the RPI, for example. A comprehensive listing based on the same period of time from the RPI might show that we played the 3rd best basketball or the 15th best basketball. The choice of what metric to use is SUBJECTIVE.

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If you want to add subjective opinion to the data for color, the list is very sad to me because it means no program has under-achieved more in March than AZ over the past 22 years. We played the 5th best basketball in the country over the course of that time period  but have almost no hardware or banners to show for it.

It would be fairly easy to add a calculation to show a relationship between 'best basketball played' and actual results (records, tournament wins, etc) and then you could have a list of over achievers and under achievers....as you note, that would not likely come out very good for AZ.

Must be the process.  ::)
"How does this guy still have his job?! That makes no sense...the world is getting nuked around him and Sean Miller is still there..."  - Mark Titus

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Liquid, you were doing so well. Just go to KenPom.com and look. That is all you have to do to see how he comes up with his rankings.

I realize you intend to defend your position to the death but I doubt anyone else is enjoying our back and forth on the topic so let’s just agree to disagree.

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This is where I think you debunk yourself. Last season was one of Miller's best in terms of his personal effect on the team as he was under the worst possible hellfire and lost his class.


This is the urban legend narrative but surely you have enough intellectual honesty to admit it is not true. Miller had plenty of hellfire. We can agree on that. It was all virtually all of his own making. We might not agree on that.

But the recruiting class narrative is just utter B.S.

The class, even in tact, was a major let down from previous years. Williams is just a four star guard and a nice player but not a guy you build a team around. Quinerly was a 5 star who busted, so even if he had come, not certain we would have had much of a different year. O'Neill was a 4 star also (and some think that was way too high) who had major health issues and would not have played anyway. Do I even need to bring up Theilmans? And while Doutrive is one of my favorites in along time, was there single game he truly made a difference in this past year?

Some cite Nassir Little and Bol Bol.
Nassir Little visited on October 20th but had already committed to UNC on October 4th. NO ONE thought he would change his mind and come to AZ and sure, enough he didn't. THE NEWS ABOUT MILLER BROKE AFTER THE FEBRUARY SIGNING DATE. So the narrative that Little didn't commit because of Miller's trouble is absurd speculation at best.

Bol Bol...this is amazing. He visted 2 schools, Oregon (Sep 30) and Kentucky (October 13). HE NEVER EVEN SET FOOT ON AZ CAMPUS. He committed to Oregon on November 20. He was not coming to AZ...EVER. Again that was 3 full months before Miller's trouble. His 268 minutes of NCAA basketball will not be remembered as anything meaningful.

Miller lost 2 and only 2 players due to his program's corruption and they were 2 entirely inconsequential players. 

But one class does nota team make. What about the fact that the other three cases are the remnants of top 5 recruiting classes? Why did we not have AZ level talent among those players?

The factual narrative is that our recruiting has been grossly over estimated due to Millers remarkable success with super elite players. But the role players and almost everyone outside of the one and dones has been; a bust (Barcello, Smith, Akot, Comanche...), hated by Miller (Simmons), transferred out (Simon, Barcelo, Pitts, Victor, Mason, Randolph) or just not AZ good to start with (Ristic, PJC, York). We just do not have stable, multi year, PAC12 level quality players. Very, very few. One and dones and then a bunch of guys who would not start for ASU. When we do find a serviceable guy like Randolph or even one with great upside like Simmons, Miller runs them off.

So along comes last season and Miller has to scramble. For team that was cheating, we needed up with a pretty lame class and then when 2/3rds of it left, it got even lamer.

I am just giving credit where credit is due. 


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Put together a group of misfits last second and had a winning season. 17-15.


AZ's worst season since Ben Lindsay. Lute finished higher in the Pac10 in his very first year. It also occurred in the worst season EVER for a power five conference - 2018-2019 PAC 12 is the single worst power five league of all time. We finished 8th. Pretty sure a good HS team could have finished 6th.   

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A few close losses that could have gone either way


Just like every year, good and bad.

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if we had a bit more talent


thats the whole F***ING POINT!!!! WTF Didn't Miller have any plan beyond Ayton?!

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or if certain players hit more open shots (yes, its a make or miss game no matter who is out there and yes, there were a ton of open jumpers missed that Miller can't shoot them from the bench as a coach).

This is always the dumbest argument possible. If you think our problem were a few missed jumpers, you are not paying attention. The problem is the defense we play, the coach we have, the up to neck corruption we've tolerated and our bad recruiting (as outlined above).

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8 wins in the pac12 good for 9th when 12 wins was #2 (asu). Very dog eat dog if you ask me. It was not a pretty year, but it proved that Miller had a lot of heart.

dog run away from other dog was more like it. How did it prove Miller had a lot of heart? The pac-12 was awful. On paper, he had as much or more talent than anyone. 3 top five recruiting classes...

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He got A LOT out of that team considering BWill missing a lot of games.


Williams missed 6 games. He played in 26 games last year. And do you really think Brandon Williams is a difference maker? There are probably not 3 Olson teams where he would have even been able to be scholarship player.

And that is the crux of the issue. You're talking bout a b-level, 4 star, not AZ good point guard as if he was a program savior. That is why we finished 8th in conference and missed the tournament and you're happy about it. At the rate we're going we're gong to be worse than Cal and you guys are all going to be celebrating what an amazing job Miller did to win 10 games. Seriously, where are your standards?   

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You see this all as a failure,

Abject, inept, intolerable, inexcusable and totally unnecessary failure. Yes.

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I see it as extreme commitment
.

To losing? To obstinance? To mediocrity? To Corruption?
 
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Almost anyone else would have turtled up and hid


You mean like when he abandoned the team in Oregon and thought he was about to be fired?

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Miller worked hard,


Which is what he is paid to do.

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had a winning season,

there was nothing winning about it other than the record. It was disgraceful and pathetic. ANY AZ coach should be fired for a season like that no matter what the circumstances. 

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and was able to secure one of the best recruit classes of his tenure


this remains to be seen, but based on precedent, he likely has 1 or 2 one and done, amazing players who will leave and we will totally suck ass again - good players will transfer or be run off, graduate transfers in will bust, those who stick will not actually be good enough to win...this has been going on now for years.


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and amongst the best in the history of the program.
I would trade any of Lute's crappy, lessor ranked recruiting classes for any class Miller has ever recruited. Or any of Altman's, because he routinely beats us with classes that rank in the 30s...


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I give credit where credit is due.

apparently that does not apply to losing for you, to 8th place finishes, to missing the tournament, because someone deserves credit for those things too.
"How does this guy still have his job?! That makes no sense...the world is getting nuked around him and Sean Miller is still there..."  - Mark Titus

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And while Doutrive is one of my favorites in along time, was there single game he truly made a difference in this past year?

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketball/2019/2/28/18245600/arizona-oregon-state-recap-final-score-basketball-wildcats-beavers-highlights

Don't have enough time to read the rest of the post this morning, but DD won this game with effort on the last play!

 





Since: 6/19/2017