Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Author Topic: 3 point FG Defense  (Read 473 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Liquidated

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1723
  • Karma: -936
  • Tell All Fellow UofA Fans To Check Out PlayersProgramU
3 point FG Defense
« on: December 02, 2019, 04:35:18 PM »
I am rather surprised the constant refrain on these boards about how bad our perimeter defense is... I think that is mentioned every single year, true or not, it always SEEMS like those shots are just killing us, when in fact, only one game this year was a let down. Perimeter D has been excellent, especially considering we are playing a lot freshmen one that perimeter and we play a defense specifically designed to gamble and leave 3 point shooters wide open.

Although it is an older article, Kenpom makes a great case for evaluating 3 point defense not by opponents shooting percentage but by 3 point attempts.

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

Using Kenpom's idea of 3 point shots allowed, we rank #35 of 347 division I teams...effectively top 10%, we've allowed 199 three point shots against us, so far.

Arizona, by 3 point % is #206 after the Wake Forest game. But at this time just a % point or two up or down (a single good game or bad game) can move you 50 spots. Three point percentages: Wake 31.3%, Penn 38.2%, Pepperdine 48.1%, The 'Beach' 28%, S. Dakota 36.8%, NMSU 30.0%, SJSU 11.0%, Illinois 31.3%, NAU 33.3%. Pepperdine is the only defensive letdown and as noted Pepperdine is a good shooting team (season 43.9% overall FG%)...against everyone. They also have no real game other than to bomb away. Our opponents 3 pt % has been REALLY LOW so far this season in most every other game, especially since we intentionally leave some shooters open and in comparison to AZ the past several years. Removing that 1 game from the mix and we are one of the top 3 point defending teams in the country.

It is difficult this time of year because of how uneven the early schedule is for college hoops...NAU, for example is #1 in opponents 3 point attempts (74) and the top 5 in % allowed are the murderers row of: Arkansas, Sacramento State, Idaho State, Oklahoma State and Dusquene. So it is difficult to draw conclusions just yet....but if the early season sample is anything to judge by, our 3 point defense has been and is going to be very good this year.




"How does this guy still have his job?! That makes no sense...the world is getting nuked around him and Sean Miller is still there..."  - Mark Titus

Online BearDown93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 178
  • Karma: 34
  • BEARDOWN
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2019, 05:23:11 PM »
Butler has allowed 32 of 136.
Gonzaga 66 of 186.
Oregon 56 of 210.
Washington 48 of 125
Michigan 35 of 115.
Arizona 66 of 199.

Amongst a smattering of our 'peers' only Oregon matches us for our perceived poor perimeter defense.   Take the stats you found and throw out the worst 247 division 1 teams as they only flatten the statistics and make us look better.  I wonder what those stats would look like with the top 100 teams.  And, realistically we only care about competing with the top 50-75 teams.  Then let's take the top 25 and see where we stand.  I think all of the teams I listed are top 25 and we are near the bottom.  Bottom 15% if you will.  It looks like teams shoot a lot of 3s against us because teams shoot a lot of 3s against us.  It looks like they make a lot of 3s against us because they make a lot of 3s.  We aren't terrible but when listing our issues like FT shooting, and inexperience it's fair to also list suspect perimeter D.


Online Deb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58
  • Karma: 22
  • BEARDOWN
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2019, 06:12:58 PM »
I do not know the stats over miller's decade at AZ concerning our 3p defense - I have however watched every single game in those ten yrs and we have suffered many a loss - some very crucial heartbreaking losses - by teams who have someone going off on threes. The loss at Cal when Bash broke his foot, the loss at Wash last yr, just about all our losses to Oregon, both EE losses to Wisc (thx to Frank and Sam), our sweet16 loss to OhioSt and that wretched 1st round exit to Buffalo, who made 15!!! of em.

The diff this yr is our own guys can make them too.

Offline Johnny-bravo

  • Supporter
  • Full Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 36
  • Karma: -19
  • Tell All Fellow UofA Fans To Check Out PlayersProgramU
Re: 3 point FG Def
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2019, 06:33:42 PM »
Yeah, I hate the pack line defense.  It’s a man to man defense, but it is an adaptation from more traditional man-to-man defensive principles.

In a traditional man defense, a defender will typically follow or shadow his man wherever he goes on the floor, and he will actively deny passing lanes between his man and the ball.  In the pack-line, an imaginary line is drawn just inside the three-point line, and the defense doesn’t look to extend beyond it.

Outside of the “pack-line”, passing lanes are not denied and offensive players, other than the player with the ball, are not closely guarded.  It’s a defense that is content to let you pass the ball around the perimeter and shoot contested three-pointers. 

But those “contested” threes are killing us.  Either the defense doesn’t work well or we don’t have the players to excel in it.  i’d prefer a mix of traditional man to man and zone defenses.

Offline Johnny-bravo

  • Supporter
  • Full Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 36
  • Karma: -19
  • Tell All Fellow UofA Fans To Check Out PlayersProgramU
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2019, 06:51:36 PM »
From a 2012 SI article: “This is how James Whitford, Arizona's associate head coach, explained their three-point philosophy in the Pack: "It's a system more for keeping percentage low that it is for keeping attempts low," he said.”

But this doesn’t work when we aren’t aggressively contesting the shots.

Offline Liquidated

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1723
  • Karma: -936
  • Tell All Fellow UofA Fans To Check Out PlayersProgramU
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2019, 10:26:52 PM »
Guys that Kenpom article is great....the primary point is that you cannot control whether a team or player is hot from 3 point range... where as you can prevent a guy from driving the lane, there is literally nothing you can do, short of fouling to stop a good jump shooter who is having a hot night EXCEPT deny him the ball and therefore the shooting opportunity. What magical permitter D do you expect could reduce 3 point shooting %?! And as the article notes there is almost zero statistical correlation between wining/success and holding opponents to low 3 point %'s. But there is in holding them to a lower number of attempts. That is something the pack-line is specifically designed to NOT do. Pack line philosophy allows for MORE 3 point attempts, banking on the fact that it is a lower % shot (and as analytics have shown, it is not).

More and more teams are shooting more and more 3's....so this era of college hoops is going to be defined by how teams deal with it on both ends of the floor.

I love to criticize Miller but the simple fact is, his defense is sub par at denying 3 point attempts and he has, until now, not recruited enough good 3 point shooters...how he has or has not dealt with 3 point shooting is why he has not been to a final four. 
"How does this guy still have his job?! That makes no sense...the world is getting nuked around him and Sean Miller is still there..."  - Mark Titus

Offline Liquidated

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1723
  • Karma: -936
  • Tell All Fellow UofA Fans To Check Out PlayersProgramU
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2019, 10:30:39 PM »
 ...banking on the fact that it is a lower % shot (and as analytics have shown, it is not).

Correction: that should read: "...banking on the fact that it is a lower % shot but, as analytics have shown, while it is a lower % shot, it is a higher scoring outcome, over all. "
"How does this guy still have his job?! That makes no sense...the world is getting nuked around him and Sean Miller is still there..."  - Mark Titus

Offline KansasCityCats

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1528
  • Karma: 159
  • BTFD
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2019, 12:02:40 AM »

With the exception of last year’s debacle, Arizona has never been ranked outside of the Top-100 in 3P% under Miller.

To put it in perspective, Dook was #327 last year.

Too many teams live and die by the 3. It’s a low percentage attempt that rarely ends up with an offensive rebound and second chance points. It also limits our team fouls when opponents decide not to attack the basket.

Let them shoot from the outside...especially when conference play begins.

Offline Manillathrilla

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 41
  • Karma: 4
  • Don't forget to add an Avatar pic to your profile.
Re: 3 point FG Defense
« Reply #8 on: December 03, 2019, 07:02:23 AM »
Teams make their 3 point shots in tournament games... ALWAYS... Come March we need to be stopping the 3 point shot..

&app=desktop


 





Since: 6/19/2017